Boston Bruins Midseason Struggles: Playoff Odds & Injury Updates | Ep. 119
Liner notes
🎙️ Post-Thanksgiving Boston Bruins fans face a challenging stretch as the team grapples with a brutal NHL hockey schedule, rising injuries, and penalty kill struggles. Karoline delivers expert hockey analysis of the latest Thanksgiving Playoff Model results, revealing why the Bruins’ true playoff odds might be bleaker than the standings suggest. Maria shares her insights on league-wide chaos, Olympic schedule impacts, trade rumors, and highlights the continued brilliance of Jeremy Swayman and Morgan Geekie.We provide a detailed Bruins game recap covering the recent clashes with the NY Rangers and Detroit Red Wings, plus a forward look at tough upcoming matchups against Detroit, St. Louis, and New Jersey. Deep discussion on roster depth, player accountability, and the controversial captaincy question offers Bruins insider chatter sure to engage fans. This stat-driven, fast-paced episode is a must-listen for anyone craving a full Boston Bruins news and hockey update.
Stay connected with Bruins Tape to Tape for unfiltered Bruins hot takes, in-depth game breakdowns, and passionate fan discussion all season long!
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Speaker 1: Can you start a podcast with me? Please? I need
Speaker 1: something to do. I'll Jack send it out and trip
Speaker 1: a Bocknn says, game today, here's a chance pop fa
Speaker 1: right on the goalie scars.
Speaker 2: Oh my one a move by the rookie to.
Speaker 1: On one plaster not moving in its time on oil
Speaker 1: dances in podcast at home, right way corner, paster Chester.
Speaker 2: What is that for? Most?
Speaker 1: Welcome in, everyone to another episode of Bruin's Tape to Tape.
Speaker 1: We are recording this episode on Monday, the first of
Speaker 1: this December, post Thanksgiving, I want to welcome in my
Speaker 1: lovely co host Caroline with a kay welcome in. I
Speaker 1: hope you enjoyed our Thanksgiving break. I did, I did.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how much the Bruins enjoyed it,
Speaker 2: but I enjoyed my Thanksgiving breaks. Now, they might have
Speaker 2: been a little bit too much turkey on Thursday based
Speaker 2: on the Friday results, but well, we'll get to all
Speaker 2: of that as we move along to our game recaps.
Speaker 1: But it's been another busy stretch for the Bruins. It
Speaker 1: just seems like they haven't really had time to breathe,
Speaker 1: and honestly, I just want to vent a little bit
Speaker 1: about the schedule, because I know the schedule's been horrible
Speaker 1: for a majority of the league, but it seems to
Speaker 1: me for the Bruins it's been a little bit more
Speaker 1: unpleasant because twice now this season we have had opponents
Speaker 1: come to the TD Garden where they arrive a day early,
Speaker 1: have a day of rest, get a practice, and our
Speaker 1: team is coming back from god only knows where and
Speaker 1: really doesn't even have an opportunity to catch the breadth.
Speaker 1: So I agree, I don't care for that.
Speaker 2: I mean, like we've talked about, I've enjoyed the schedule
Speaker 2: for the most part, but there have been a few
Speaker 2: elements that I'm not a fan of, especially considering that
Speaker 2: Boston was ahead in terms of games played too. That's
Speaker 2: I mean, it's everyone's starting to catch up now, but
Speaker 2: that wasn't great. And with the compressed schedule, we're starting
Speaker 2: to really feel the impact of those injuries.
Speaker 1: We've talked about again in past episodes.
Speaker 2: When a man goes down on any other given season,
Speaker 2: you know, if he's day to day, he might miss one,
Speaker 2: maybe two games. Day to day right now might mean
Speaker 2: you're missing.
Speaker 1: A week of games, right right, right, No, it is
Speaker 1: having an impact across the league, and we'll talk about
Speaker 1: that because there are a couple more significant injuries that
Speaker 1: occurred recently, will do that in our round the Rink segment.
Speaker 1: But to set our table for our Bruins specific topics
Speaker 1: of conversation, we're going to touch on a few injury
Speaker 1: updates and things are starting to good and bad as
Speaker 1: it flows for the Boston Bruins. We're going to talk about.
Speaker 2: Who saw Morgan Geek? Who saw Morgan Geek coming? Nobody,
Speaker 2: let's be honest.
Speaker 1: Nobody, right, And I had a little bit of an
Speaker 1: epiphany over the Thanksgiving weekend that I'm going to roll
Speaker 1: into somewhat of what I think is a hot take.
Speaker 1: Our listeners and viewers may not think so, but I'm
Speaker 1: going to fear my thought regardless, because why not, and
Speaker 1: because I can. And then I know you had been
Speaker 1: doing a little bit of statistical research for us that
Speaker 1: some of our listeners will find a little bit knowledgeable
Speaker 1: and maybe a little bit to concerning. Yes, where the
Speaker 1: Bruins are concerned, We've got a lot to talk about,
Speaker 1: so let's just dive right in. We'll start with our
Speaker 1: around the rink segment, and we'll start with an injury
Speaker 1: update across the league.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Adam Fox is the most recent defenceman, big name
Speaker 2: defenceman to go down, although again it's.
Speaker 1: Believed he will be back up and running for the Olympics.
Speaker 1: Hard to say.
Speaker 2: He was put on LTIR, which is a little more
Speaker 2: serious than perhaps what Chucky's going through. So that's at
Speaker 2: least ten games twenty four days for LTIR, and he
Speaker 2: sustained some kind of upper body injury against the Tampa
Speaker 2: Bay Lightning. He got hit and was holding his arm,
Speaker 2: So that's that's never a good sign, especially after that,
Speaker 2: and then your team puts you on LTIR immediately, that's
Speaker 2: a bad sign too. Yes, So he went down and
Speaker 2: then the other will stay in the metro area because
Speaker 2: Kyle Palmyer he's also down and out with a knee injury,
Speaker 2: which if you haven't seen play where he got injured,
Speaker 2: I got to tell you, hockey players best athletes in
Speaker 2: the world. There's no athlete like a hockey player. Because
Speaker 2: this man goes right into the boards, feet first in
Speaker 2: the boards, really hurting. The play was not called dead
Speaker 2: because I think they were playing the Flyers. They had
Speaker 2: possession and play was down at the other end of
Speaker 2: the rink, the rep for one of the linesmen, whoever
Speaker 2: was watching him to see if he needed assistance getting off.
Speaker 1: He manages to get up.
Speaker 2: Very slowly, carefully skates to his own bench, and on
Speaker 2: his way he manages to tap the puck and ultimately
Speaker 2: ended up.
Speaker 1: Assisting on a goal while he was on his way
Speaker 1: off the ice.
Speaker 2: Say what you will about Kyle Paulmery and the New
Speaker 2: York Islanders hockey players. Man, this is why hockey is
Speaker 2: the superior sport to all other sports. And any other
Speaker 2: professional athlete get injured period, let alone a knee injury.
Speaker 1: And then assist on a scoring action in any sport.
Speaker 1: Any any time I hear about an injury like this,
Speaker 1: I always think back to this was quite a few
Speaker 1: years ago. Steven Stamkos when he played for the Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Lightning in a game at the Ted Garden, literally
Speaker 1: breaks his faith on the Gold Coast. Yes, leaves the game,
Speaker 1: gets patched up, and then freaking comes back and play
Speaker 1: like his face is busted up. It's lunacy, you know.
Speaker 1: I think football players have a similar level. I think
Speaker 1: a toughness, but I think hockey players like bar Nuns yep,
Speaker 1: we've seen.
Speaker 2: How many guys have we seen on the Bruins play
Speaker 2: games with broken legs? Jake Debresk, get it, oh, Gregory
Speaker 2: Campbell and his was like a straight up break and
Speaker 2: he was out there popping around on one freaking leg,
Speaker 2: kill off a penalty. It's lunacy.
Speaker 1: And you're right. I think we touched upon this in
Speaker 1: our last pod. But this type of a condensed schedule
Speaker 1: I think is having an effect on teams across the
Speaker 1: league with these injuries. And we're not talking some of
Speaker 1: this stuff is not one or two days now at
Speaker 1: this point, these are weeks and months. And so I
Speaker 1: asked the question. And I know if you ask the
Speaker 1: players that are going to the Olympics, they will say
Speaker 1: it's worth it. But I asked the question, is this
Speaker 1: worth it? I would think that the league and owners
Speaker 1: may be revisiting allowing the players to participate in these
Speaker 1: Olympics if these types of significant injuries continue as a
Speaker 1: lead in to Olympic play.
Speaker 2: And it's been long enough now since NHL players have
Speaker 2: gone to the Olympics that I don't remember what the
Speaker 2: schedule was like for players back last Maybe was it
Speaker 2: really twenty ten?
Speaker 1: I'm no, they were in Sochi.
Speaker 2: No, so it's been twelve years because Sochi was I believe,
Speaker 2: the last time that the NHL had players. But it's
Speaker 2: curious because I'm not sure what the schedule was like
Speaker 2: and how long the break was that year typically our
Speaker 2: and so the Olympic break is also a longer break
Speaker 2: for the players this year because typically their break is
Speaker 2: about ten days in February, and depending on exactly when
Speaker 2: your team goes on the break, I think it ultimately
Speaker 2: is maybe seven days of no hockey for us as fans,
Speaker 2: but ten days for the players. And this is a
Speaker 2: three week no hockey for US, three weeks of no
Speaker 2: NHL hockey, so it's that's almost the entire month of February.
Speaker 1: So I don't even know.
Speaker 2: I'm assuming the back end of the schedule is also
Speaker 2: going to be a little bit busy if their goal
Speaker 2: is to make sure that they are not having a
Speaker 2: super late Stanley Cup again, which obviously they already have
Speaker 2: the date set, but so it'll be interesting and those
Speaker 2: rosters are going to be decided this month, so we
Speaker 2: will know the final rosters I believe around January first,
Speaker 2: around Christmas time, January first, New Year so that's coming
Speaker 2: up very soon. I know we'll be talking more and
Speaker 2: more as those rosters come out. Certainly I've got opinions
Speaker 2: on players and who should be there and who should
Speaker 2: not be there.
Speaker 1: I know you have very strong opinions about the goaltending,
Speaker 1: and that'll be very curious to see that lands for
Speaker 1: Team USA, specifically for Team usas and to answer your question,
Speaker 1: when they come back from the Olympic break. Yes, I'm
Speaker 1: looking at the Bruins schedule from March. It's gross. It's gross.
Speaker 2: There's literally just it's the same other day, every the day.
Speaker 2: And there are two back to baths two different times
Speaker 2: in March. They will be playing back to back games.
Speaker 2: Are they a home and away back to back? That's
Speaker 2: the worst two.
Speaker 1: One is away and one of them is the home
Speaker 1: and away situation. So it's it's gross. It's gross, gross, gross, gross, gross.
Speaker 1: But back to back away, so there's travel. Oh, actually
Speaker 1: I take that back this three. So it's again it
Speaker 1: sounds like we're whining. It sounds like we're whining, but
Speaker 1: I just and we can get into this topic of
Speaker 1: conversation later on in the season in terms of, if any,
Speaker 1: the impact of going to the Olympics, to the extent
Speaker 1: that if there were any injuries when these players come
Speaker 1: back right, or they've got lingering issues or injuries as
Speaker 1: you're heading into the playoffs for particular teams, the impact
Speaker 1: of that. And we've also started hearing a little bit
Speaker 1: of trade rumor rumberlings. Now, I don't know that there's
Speaker 1: anything significant brewing, and I would be surprised if any
Speaker 1: teams make deals before the actual trade deadline in March,
Speaker 1: because again, you've got this big gap coming up here
Speaker 1: in February and teams maybe waiting to see where things fall,
Speaker 1: who's healthy, who's not healthy. But it doesn't prevent people
Speaker 1: from talking a little bit of tea. And one of
Speaker 1: the names of teams that keeps coming up in trade
Speaker 1: rumors is the Vancouver Canucks because they are having pretty
Speaker 1: much a shit season. Fire sale.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious, yeah, that Vancouver's management
Speaker 2: is doing whatever it can in this current season to
Speaker 2: convince Quinn to stay. Because while it's not been over said,
Speaker 2: I think you can draw the conclusion that, based on
Speaker 2: his comments and interviews and things that I've heard from
Speaker 2: thirty two thoughts that he's waiting to see what happens,
Speaker 2: which means if they're in the toilet and they're not positive,
Speaker 2: changes aren't happening. He doesn't want to stay, he's willing
Speaker 2: to leave because, like any elite NHL player, at the
Speaker 2: end of the day, he wants a cup. He wants
Speaker 2: a legitimate shot of the Cup, and that's just not
Speaker 2: something that he has had with this Vancouver team, with
Speaker 2: this management. So I think right now the idea behind
Speaker 2: this fire sale is, well, we're going to do whatever
Speaker 2: it takes to fix this, and if they don't, I
Speaker 2: don't imagine he's going to be signing any kind of
Speaker 2: extension this summer because he'll be then going into his
Speaker 2: final year of his contract.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't do it either. And the Hughes boys
Speaker 1: wanting to play together, so that would potentially leave the
Speaker 1: door open for him going to New Jersey to play
Speaker 1: with his brother Jack and Loot. But found it interesting
Speaker 1: that there's conversations already starting. The other interesting thing I've
Speaker 1: read today is this is no shocker, and any of
Speaker 1: us could say the Edmonton Oilers looking for a goalie
Speaker 1: or need a frigging goalie.
Speaker 2: That's a mess there too, just a mess. They're in
Speaker 2: a lot of trouble. We'll talk a little bit later
Speaker 2: about this. I ran my Thanksgiving predictions model this past weekend,
Speaker 2: and it doesn't look good for the Oilers at all.
Speaker 2: It comes down to.
Speaker 1: They got a little bit of bad luck.
Speaker 2: They've got issues with their points percentage, and their goals
Speaker 2: against average as a team is bad. I'm not one
Speaker 2: hundred percent placing everything on the goaltending by any means.
Speaker 2: I mean, let's be honest, if you are an NHL goaltend,
Speaker 2: if you are a professional hockey player, and you play
Speaker 2: one game in the NHL, let alone many games in
Speaker 2: the NHL, you're really good at that sport at that position.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that Skinner isn't or Pickard isn't. They're
Speaker 2: just not the right guys for this team. We've seen
Speaker 2: that with other players where things haven't gone really well,
Speaker 2: they move to another team and they're a whole new player, right.
Speaker 2: I think what's kind of surprising is the fact that
Speaker 2: it's been somewhat obvious to the rest of us non
Speaker 2: fans casual watchers of that team. It's been pretty obvious
Speaker 2: for a long time now, at least three years, that
Speaker 2: that tandem that starting goalie. He's just not your guy.
Speaker 2: I don't know why it's been taking them this long
Speaker 2: to come to that conclusion. And then the fact that
Speaker 2: the trade rumors that are being circulated right now are
Speaker 2: to trade for a different goalie who is also not
Speaker 2: the guy in Tristan Yari.
Speaker 1: No, I don't understand. I've heard that name, I heard
Speaker 1: the Bennington name. The one thing, the one thing that
Speaker 1: I did read in this report is whatever Edmonton decides
Speaker 1: to do when it comes to their goaltending situation, it
Speaker 1: will be a trade for the guy, so whoever they're
Speaker 1: looking for at this because let's face it, they've been
Speaker 1: trying to just put a band aid on their situation
Speaker 1: for years. And I still don't understand why Connor McDavid
Speaker 1: extended there. I honestly don't know, unless he's privy to
Speaker 1: something that the rest of us don't know in terms
Speaker 1: of what they want to build for the future to
Speaker 1: try and ultimately have this guy in Connor McDavid hoisting
Speaker 1: a Stanley Cup. You know, whatever move they make, it
Speaker 1: sounds like it has to be the move that they
Speaker 1: want to identify who their goaltender will be for a
Speaker 1: foreseeable future period of time. And maybe that's part and
Speaker 1: parcel of why David only signed a two year deal.
Speaker 2: Let me see what you're gonna do, one last chance.
Speaker 2: Not my not my team, not my problem, right, No,
Speaker 2: my not our team, not our problem.
Speaker 1: But it's just unfortunate, right because this season it looks
Speaker 1: a little bit different than it's looked in the past.
Speaker 1: Where in the past it's way the Oilers are gonna
Speaker 1: turn it on, and they have, but this season it
Speaker 1: looks different in there.
Speaker 2: They're just not looking like a good teams. I'm saying
Speaker 2: it now, folks. They're not gonna make it. They're not
Speaker 2: gonna And.
Speaker 1: We'll get to those stats too, and again they're just stats, folks,
Speaker 1: don't shoot the messenger. Caroline has spent a lot of
Speaker 1: time over her Thanksgiving break looking at analytics and data
Speaker 1: and stuff like that. So just food for thought.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all probability, it's not certainty. Now let's get
Speaker 2: to the team that we do care about. Yes, is
Speaker 2: the Boston Bruins. Injuries are mounting, injuries are mounting. Good
Speaker 2: news is we got Eliaslund home back and Casey middlestep back.
Speaker 1: I believe that Victor Ardvdson has been skating recently. He's close.
Speaker 2: Halzaka misses a game, but it was one game David Pastronach.
Speaker 2: David Pastronach, so let's set the table with this and
Speaker 2: that it was the game against the New York Rangers
Speaker 2: on Black Friday.
Speaker 1: I went to the game. I had a pretty good
Speaker 1: buzz going as I walked into the building and then
Speaker 1: I sat down and I start scrolling through my socials
Speaker 1: and see, all of a sudden, an hour before the game,
Speaker 1: it's announced that both Pavelzaka and David Pastronach would be
Speaker 1: missing that game, to which I said, what the hell happened?
Speaker 2: What the hell happened to David Posterronach. I don't know
Speaker 2: what happened with Zaka. I don't think that we got
Speaker 2: eyes on what happened there. But with Pasta, there was
Speaker 2: a clip circulating where he was skating and it looked
Speaker 2: very similar to what happened with Arvidson. With the speculation
Speaker 2: there based on what everybody saw was a skating related
Speaker 2: possible growing pull, and that is something that can happen
Speaker 2: from this condensed schedule, this excessive use.
Speaker 1: So that's kind of the concern.
Speaker 2: He's just out right now, he's not officially on anything
Speaker 2: as far as I've seen, unless Maria, you are seeing
Speaker 2: anything out there in the interwebs, any updates. But he's
Speaker 2: day to day as far as we know, Arvidson is
Speaker 2: now day to day. They've been doing reassigning up and down,
Speaker 2: some paper transactions as hypologists have to make sure everything pathetic.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think those are just those are in
Speaker 1: fact just paper transactions to keep themselves from getting into
Speaker 1: a little bit of cap trouble.
Speaker 2: Yes, so, because we don't really know what happened with him,
Speaker 2: just what we can tell from what we saw on TV.
Speaker 2: Hopefully it's nothing very serious. However, when it comes to
Speaker 2: muscle stuff, poles and such, you do have to be
Speaker 2: cautious with those because if you don't treat them correctly
Speaker 2: early on, it can be a season long issue. And
Speaker 2: I believe in terms of other updates, did I see
Speaker 2: Charlie Mack has been doing some skating?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I thought that Arvidson and Charlie Mack might have
Speaker 1: been skating together. I could be mistaken about that. Yes,
Speaker 1: he is starting a fit to do some skating as well,
Speaker 1: just for conditioning purposes.
Speaker 2: I have to assume we'll see what the timetable is
Speaker 2: for both of those players to get back in into
Speaker 2: the lineup, because you know, scoring has been a little
Speaker 2: bit anemic of late. Yeah, I mean, I'd never thought
Speaker 2: i'd be annoyed that Morgan geek was scoring so much. Like,
Speaker 2: don't get me wrong, love this for Boston, love this
Speaker 2: for him, But for the love of God, can someone
Speaker 2: else score the goals?
Speaker 1: And I started one of our most recent snapshots with
Speaker 1: the question of where the hell would the Boston Bruins
Speaker 1: be without Morgan Geeky And real time update, I just
Speaker 1: saw a post from Ty Anderson. Speculation is that Arvidson
Speaker 1: will be back in the lineup tomorrow. Tomorrow being Tuesday,
Speaker 1: the Bruins play Detroit. It would be good to go
Speaker 1: for the game against the Red Wings in Detroit.
Speaker 2: Well, good, good, good good. We need that secondary scoring
Speaker 2: again coming from that line. I mean, they were really
Speaker 2: cooking and then all of a sudden, well and exain,
Speaker 2: we'll get to all this.
Speaker 1: These injuries have affected a litany of things, including the
Speaker 1: power play, and I think you'll get to that as
Speaker 1: part of your stellar analysis. But yes, so just we've
Speaker 1: had another abundance of games to talk about the We'll
Speaker 1: start with the Bruins finishing their road trip on the
Speaker 1: Wednesday before Thanksgiving with a three to one win against
Speaker 1: the New York Islanders. And what I liked about this
Speaker 1: game is the fact.
Speaker 2: That people not named Morgan Geeky scored goals to help
Speaker 2: the Bruins win the game. And Jeremy Swayman, I'm not
Speaker 2: going to say he stood on his head, because I
Speaker 2: think that gets used a little too freely sometimes, but
Speaker 2: I will say that the New York Islanders put forty
Speaker 2: four shots on goal on Jeremy, Yeah, twenty three of
Speaker 2: them in the third period. Yeah, and Jeremy Swayman stopped
Speaker 2: them all and they were not easy saves. This is
Speaker 2: when you know what goalie looks locked in or is
Speaker 2: locked in. When a goalie makes a hard save look.
Speaker 1: Easy, You're like, this guy is a wall. Tonight it
Speaker 1: was unreal.
Speaker 2: I think we've been waiting. I mean, we waited a
Speaker 2: year for this, because this is the Jeremy Swayman that
Speaker 2: we saw in the year prior before the terrible last year.
Speaker 2: That was the Swaymen that we saw in that season
Speaker 2: that we knew was going going to be our future,
Speaker 2: our starting goaltender, our guy, right, and he has been
Speaker 2: that consistently for at least the month of November. He
Speaker 2: was a little slower to warm up, and I say
Speaker 2: only a little bit because his warming up period he
Speaker 2: wasn't terrible either. He was probably average, right. And so
Speaker 2: he's just been.
Speaker 1: Completely elite, elite, elite elite this month.
Speaker 2: And when we find out about the Team USA situation
Speaker 2: in terms of their goaltending, expect to be hearing from
Speaker 2: me and my opinions.
Speaker 1: If he doesn't get the net for Team USA, something
Speaker 1: is a mess. In my ge something is a mess.
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying that just as a Bruins fan.
Speaker 1: I'm saying that as a hockey fan.
Speaker 2: No, because if you look at and again, I know
Speaker 2: you'll get to this and we'll have further discussion about it.
Speaker 1: So you know, I don't want to be a spoiler here.
Speaker 2: But well wait, one spoiler. I will say it because
Speaker 2: I gotta say it. Connor Hellibuck's not the guy, because
Speaker 2: the man gets the.
Speaker 1: Yips when it counts. Connor Hellibuck definitely soils himselves. No, No,
Speaker 1: he poops his pants. Let's just come out and say it.
Speaker 1: He poops his pants. We all saw it happen in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. It's not a small sample size.
Speaker 2: Guy playoffs in the four nations. I don't know how
Speaker 2: much more evidence you need to know that he's not
Speaker 2: the guy in the high pressure situation.
Speaker 1: Whatever. Anyways, Islanders game. Anyways, we digress.
Speaker 2: Now, the Bruins won the game on the fact that
Speaker 2: I said players not named Morgan Geeky scored goals.
Speaker 1: You had two goals from Alex Steves. He's been a
Speaker 1: breadth of fresh air. He's been playing so well. I
Speaker 1: don't know how you take this guy out of.
Speaker 2: The lineup, honestly when everyone's back in healthy, because he's
Speaker 2: been doing his job and doing it very well. So
Speaker 2: we had two goals in the game against the Islanders,
Speaker 2: and Tanner Jane also had a goal. And believe it
Speaker 2: or not, in this game against the Islanders, the Bruins
Speaker 2: had only eight minutes of penalties in the game, but they.
Speaker 1: Were outshot by a margin of fourteen to forty four. Yeah,
Speaker 1: not ideal if you're only putting fourteen shots on goal.
Speaker 1: I mean, you won the game, that's all that matters.
Speaker 2: However, that game was, I mean, it was an enjoyable game.
Speaker 2: It was entertaining, to say the least. I mean just
Speaker 2: watching Swaymen Yes do his thing, and it was great,
Speaker 2: like you said, to see other players depth players to.
Speaker 1: Score some goals.
Speaker 2: So that was nice to see. But coming back then
Speaker 2: to the Garden to see that performance. I turned that
Speaker 2: game off in the third period.
Speaker 1: I was like, I can't. I got other things to do.
Speaker 1: I know how this is going to go.
Speaker 2: And it was a lot of the same old that
Speaker 2: we've seen, some of their bad habits, crapping.
Speaker 1: Up the end of a long road trip. I know
Speaker 1: they had the day off. The fact that they pulled
Speaker 1: out a win. They needed the win, they needed the points,
Speaker 1: and I'm glad that they secured those points. Now we
Speaker 1: fast forward to the Friday after Thanksgiving. That game was
Speaker 1: annoying as all hell. How you don't get up for
Speaker 1: a game the day to Thanksgiving?
Speaker 2: Yeah, not great against the New York Rangers, two original
Speaker 2: six teams.
Speaker 1: You didn't start on time. Before I even got my
Speaker 1: best in my seat, they were down one to nothing.
Speaker 1: Then you double down on the stupid penalties that you
Speaker 1: keep taking. And Mika's Abanajad and our Tammy Paneren made
Speaker 1: sure that the Bruins paid for Hampusland Holmes double minor.
Speaker 1: Four minutes. They connected on two power play goals, and
Speaker 1: the Bruins showed no signs of life until the third period.
Speaker 2: And then when Mike Sullivan saw that his team was
Speaker 2: somewhat under siege and the Bruins had closed the gap
Speaker 2: from four nothing to four to two, he called a
Speaker 2: time out and ripped his team.
Speaker 1: A new one. Yeah, there was nothing good about that game.
Speaker 1: There was it was it was.
Speaker 2: It was a trash game. It was garbage. I felt
Speaker 2: so bad for the goalten it was Corporsalo.
Speaker 1: Now, Corposalo looked a little rusty to start because he
Speaker 1: hadn't seen any game action in at least four or
Speaker 1: five games because Swayman had played that many games in
Speaker 1: a row. So I'll excuse him for the early all right,
Speaker 1: But he was left high and dry in more than
Speaker 1: one instance.
Speaker 2: And again, these effing interference, tripping, hooking penalties.
Speaker 1: I'm sick of it. I don't know how else to
Speaker 1: say it.
Speaker 2: Yes, well, I can't remember which game it was, if
Speaker 2: it was that game or San Jose. I remember thinking
Speaker 2: this either the San Jose game or it was after
Speaker 2: the Rangers game, and quite frankly, it probably was the
Speaker 2: Rangers game that could very well be a turning point.
Speaker 1: Game for good or for bad.
Speaker 2: It's either going to serve as a wake up call
Speaker 2: or or it's going to be the game that we
Speaker 2: will be able to point to to say that was
Speaker 2: the moment that cost them a spot in the playoffs
Speaker 2: because of the penalties, that they lost the game, not
Speaker 2: necessarily because they were the worst team on the ice
Speaker 2: or a bad team, they lost the game because of penalties.
Speaker 2: And I think it's going to be right at this time.
Speaker 2: So how they choose to move forward, if they are
Speaker 2: capable of moving forward in a positive direction, I don't know,
Speaker 2: because we are what twenty five games in and they've
Speaker 2: shown some discipline. We've seen them turn it around a
Speaker 2: little bit, but they can't seem to maintain it. So
Speaker 2: I'm nervous about that.
Speaker 1: Yes, and you know what their PQ was handling their
Speaker 1: lack of discipline. But now when you have key penalty
Speaker 1: killers sitting.
Speaker 2: In the box, well, and then so let's talk about
Speaker 2: the model and the predictions because it's all related to this,
Speaker 2: and this is the stuff that we're going to need
Speaker 2: to be paying attention to the most.
Speaker 1: This is what I'm going to be keying in.
Speaker 2: So I'll put the link to last year's substack article
Speaker 2: in the show notes, and there will be a more
Speaker 2: in depth explainer about this year's model later this week
Speaker 2: on the Substack. But ultimately, what I've done is I've
Speaker 2: taken data from twenty thirteen to presence, and I've compared
Speaker 2: where all the different teams were by Thanksgiving of any
Speaker 2: given year and then their playoff outcome, like do they
Speaker 2: make playoffs?
Speaker 1: Do they not make playoffs?
Speaker 2: And I've looked at a whole bunch of different very
Speaker 2: commonly used metrics, the rushes, goals for, goals against, the team,
Speaker 2: goals against average, all those kinds of things. You've probably
Speaker 2: heard us talk a little bit about the PDO and
Speaker 2: stuff like that. So ultimately, what I then did was
Speaker 2: I ran it through a couple of different statistical models
Speaker 2: to see which of the most common metrics hockey analytics
Speaker 2: that may or may not impact a team's ability to
Speaker 2: either make it or not make it to the playoffs.
Speaker 2: And so this year ruins. And again this is based
Speaker 2: on standings on Thanksgiving Day. As we move forward things
Speaker 2: will change. But on Thanksgiving Day, the Bruins had it
Speaker 2: had gone down, actually, because I ran the model a
Speaker 2: couple of times with some different tweaks here and there.
Speaker 2: The Bruins are down to only about a forty percent
Speaker 2: chance of making the playoffs right now. And the key
Speaker 2: reason is Boston has an absurdly high penalty ki load.
Speaker 1: Duh, Okay.
Speaker 2: Their PDO is fairly average. So when you think about PDO,
Speaker 2: it kind of almost measures skill over luck. It's the
Speaker 2: shooting percentage and safe percentage. A PDO of one hundred
Speaker 2: is average. If it's a little bit over, you know, oh,
Speaker 2: they're just like maybe a little bit lucky. Or if
Speaker 2: it's a little if it's under, they're just having some.
Speaker 1: Bad puck luck.
Speaker 2: But because Boston is average in that regard, what we're
Speaker 2: seeing is that they are being saved by their elite goaltending.
Speaker 2: Boston is a team whose record is inflated relative to
Speaker 2: their underlying profile because their penalty kill safe percentage is
Speaker 2: unusually strong. So they are consistently getting bailed out of
Speaker 2: high danger PK chances because of their goaltending and because
Speaker 2: of some very key penalty killing players. Boston is right
Speaker 2: now sitting well, I guess I didn't check this morning
Speaker 2: because games were played yesterday, But after the Detroit game,
Speaker 2: Boston was in second place in the Atlantic. That may
Speaker 2: seem great, Wow, that sounds like, how could they possibly
Speaker 2: be in trouble? Like, surely that being in second place
Speaker 2: in the Atlantic means that they'll make the playoffs. But
Speaker 2: like I said, their current situation looks better than it
Speaker 2: actually is because their goalie is bailing them out consistently
Speaker 2: when it comes to the penalty kill. And I brought
Speaker 2: this up in our discord and shout out to MF
Speaker 2: pointed out, Oh, yeah, and that explains the plus thirteen
Speaker 2: goals saved above average expected for swaymen because all of
Speaker 2: those shots, he's just that good.
Speaker 1: He's just that good. So he's covering up these sins.
Speaker 2: And so not only is the PK currently, like statistically,
Speaker 2: a significant issue for the Bruins, but a lot of
Speaker 2: the really important variables within the model that contributes to
Speaker 2: predicting if a team will make the playoffs or not
Speaker 2: are also directly influenced by that penalty kill burden. I'm
Speaker 2: looking at things like rush shots against the team, how
Speaker 2: many shots on the rusher made against the team goal differentials,
Speaker 2: shots against, save percentage, the PK percentage, their net percentage
Speaker 2: on that. All of these things are related to the
Speaker 2: penalty kill. And if you're on the PK more, you're
Speaker 2: facing more shots against, you have to make more saves,
Speaker 2: you have to be on the defense a lot more,
Speaker 2: and that can then negatively impact your results here in
Speaker 2: this case, so really really interesting thing. My biggest question,
Speaker 2: and again the reason why you're gonna hear me now
Speaker 2: be hung up on the penalty kill. It's not that
Speaker 2: from here on out Boston has to be perfect like Angels,
Speaker 2: because let's be honest, right, it's the Bruins.
Speaker 1: Everyone's always going to be.
Speaker 2: They got a target on their back even without Marshant,
Speaker 2: they don't have to have zero. But if they want
Speaker 2: to turn it around, they have to reduce their penalty
Speaker 2: kill load by twenty percent fewer minutes, right, That could
Speaker 2: be one less PK per game, and they're going to
Speaker 2: have to somehow eke out two more regulation wins and
Speaker 2: improve that they're safe percentage. And when I say safe percentage,
Speaker 2: you may be thinking, well, how the heck could Jeremy
Speaker 2: Swayman save anymore? The only area of improvement then would
Speaker 2: have to end up being on Corpusollo in his game,
Speaker 2: so hopefully he can bring his up a little bit.
Speaker 2: But the save percentage is going to increase naturally if
Speaker 2: they're not on the PK nearly as much.
Speaker 1: That's going to be the key. So it's not ideal
Speaker 1: to take another five penalties as they did in the
Speaker 1: game against the Red Wings Saturday night.
Speaker 2: Jesus Christ right, I mean they're averaging three or four
Speaker 2: penalties per game at this point. If they can just
Speaker 2: literally have to have one less, one less, and that's
Speaker 2: a twenty five percent reduction in PK.
Speaker 1: I've actually gotten to the point where I consider it
Speaker 1: a moral victory if they can get through a period
Speaker 1: without a penalty a period.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's unreasonable to say, hey, take one
Speaker 2: less penalty for the love of God, and you might
Speaker 2: be able to then actually make it into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Well, I think we've all watched enough hockey, both regular
Speaker 1: season and playoffs to know that this is not sustainable
Speaker 1: if you want to be a successful regular season team
Speaker 1: or potentially a playoff team.
Speaker 2: And I don't know why this is happening. I don't
Speaker 2: understand why it hasn't been corrupted. Now, I understand you're
Speaker 2: subject to the mercy sometimes of officials that are calling
Speaker 2: to attack bullshit. However, you're in control of your stick, right, Yeah,
Speaker 2: you are in control of your stick. Shouldn't the tripping calls,
Speaker 2: the interference calls, the hooking calls. Cut the shit, guys.
Speaker 2: I said it last week. Cut the shit.
Speaker 1: I don't know how else to say it, because you
Speaker 1: have lost opportunities to secure points recently because of your
Speaker 1: undisciplined play.
Speaker 2: Yep, it's within grasp, right, their ability to to turn
Speaker 2: this around and improve their odds, the probability that they're
Speaker 2: going to make the playoffs, like, it's within grasp because again,
Speaker 2: the biggest predictor is is PDO, which again you don't
Speaker 2: have to actually be scoring necessarily more goals, Like it's
Speaker 2: it's taking shots. Well, you can't take shots if you're
Speaker 2: on the PQUE Okay, you can't. It's just it's just
Speaker 2: not gonna happen as much. And you know the safe percentage. Yeah,
Speaker 2: the Bruins are in fantastic shape in that regard. But like,
Speaker 2: you can improve your PDO if you improve your shooting,
Speaker 2: you know, So get off the stupid p K it's
Speaker 2: not about getting the goals in the net, Like, yes,
Speaker 2: the goals in the net are great. Goal differential is
Speaker 2: included in the model, like, it's all part of the
Speaker 2: bigger picture, But it's literally gonna come down to the
Speaker 2: penalties for Boston this season.
Speaker 1: And those statistics also have I would think, an impact
Speaker 1: on a lot of five v five played as well.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, it's looking almost always exclusively at five v
Speaker 2: five and if you're not on the five v five
Speaker 2: you're gonna be either over under weighted or estimated on
Speaker 2: the result because you're you don't have the data doesn't
Speaker 2: exist for five.
Speaker 1: So yeah, well, I think think they all know, right
Speaker 1: because we hear them say it. That knowing and doing
Speaker 1: by very different things, apparently right, talking and implementing action
Speaker 1: is now. The game against the Red Wings at home,
Speaker 1: which was the first time the two teams had faced
Speaker 1: each other, was a very entertaining game. But again, it
Speaker 1: was a really good game. Non ideal that the Bruins
Speaker 1: allowed the Red Wings five powerplay opportunities. They killed them
Speaker 1: all off. They killed them all off. However, it took
Speaker 1: a shootout for them to win the game. But here's
Speaker 1: what I will say here's what I will say in
Speaker 1: light of how they played against the Rangers the Friday
Speaker 1: afternoon game, and the fact that there were a lot
Speaker 1: of passengers on the ice during that game that didn't
Speaker 1: show up to play until the third period, the fact
Speaker 1: that Mark or Sturm held players accountable in his postgame remarks.
Speaker 1: He didn't have to name any names, and he would
Speaker 1: not allow anyone to make excuses for injuries. He went
Speaker 1: so far as he almost started to say I believe
Speaker 1: the word disappointed or disappointing. He stopped himself. But the
Speaker 1: fact that he expressed his dismay and that the Bruins
Speaker 1: bounced back in the game against the Red Wings. Understanding
Speaker 1: is you let two important crucial points walk out of
Speaker 1: your building on Friday, you cannot allow two more crucial
Speaker 1: points to walk out of your building on a Saturday night.
Speaker 1: Great game, but again the Morgan Geeky show two more
Speaker 1: goals in that game on Saturday night. Jeremy Swayman saved
Speaker 1: the Bruins bacon again the stops that he made in
Speaker 1: the shootout against the likes of Pactic Oh my god,
Speaker 1: oh unmanned his reaction. Those glove saves were phenomenal when
Speaker 1: the shootout was over, because they all understood how important
Speaker 1: getting those two points at, especially.
Speaker 2: With the game the game that he played like, don't
Speaker 2: like he won them that game, don't screw it up?
Speaker 1: Well, he gave them the opportunity to win that game,
Speaker 1: and Casey Middlestat won the game with his shootout goals.
Speaker 1: So credit to them for bouncing back, for listening to
Speaker 1: their coach, for remedying the shit play they had against
Speaker 1: the Rangers for most of the game except the third period,
Speaker 1: and responded in a big way. Now, we've got three
Speaker 1: more games coming up this week every other day, starting
Speaker 1: with the Detroit Red Wings again on Tuesday, yep, So
Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see how everyone responds to that game.
Speaker 1: I think there were some extracurriculars that took place in
Speaker 1: the game that may may carry over into Tuesday night games.
Speaker 1: But then they faced the Saint Louis Blues on what
Speaker 1: is that Thursday night, Yesterday night against the Blues, and
Speaker 1: Saturday night against the Devils, the first time we're seeing
Speaker 1: each of those teams. Neither the Red Wings or the
Speaker 1: Blues have any significant injuries to speak of. The Blues
Speaker 1: are trying to fight their way back into being a
Speaker 1: five hundred team. I think they're winners. When last I checked,
Speaker 1: they were winners of their last two games before they
Speaker 1: face the Bruins. The Devils are at the top of
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference standings themselves, but they've got and how
Speaker 1: they're doing this, How the Devils are playing as consistently
Speaker 1: and as well as they're playing, I don't know. Without
Speaker 1: Jack Hughes in their lineup. They have thereout. They must
Speaker 1: have a deep team.
Speaker 2: It's crazy, but they're without Jack Hughes, without Brett Peshe,
Speaker 2: without the Dad nov It's see that the depth that
Speaker 2: they have.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the games against the Red Wings and the Devil's crucial.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And to get points maybe not so much the Blues game.
Speaker 2: I don't want to say great get points out of
Speaker 2: every game, but when you're playing within your own division,
Speaker 2: your own conference, the stakes are higher. In my room,
Speaker 2: and let's face the reality of the two right now,
Speaker 2: there is no elite team in the Eastern Conference. If
Speaker 2: you look at the standings, everyone's relatively bunched up. Yes,
Speaker 2: some teams have game in hands over other teams, but
Speaker 2: from a point total, it can potentially be anybody's ball game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I agree.
Speaker 2: You know, at the end of the day, like, yeah,
Speaker 2: you want to get your points when you're playing a
Speaker 2: Western team, but it really matters when you're playing teams
Speaker 2: in the East because they're the ones you're you're competing
Speaker 2: against for a spot. I mean, the Devil's right now
Speaker 2: and Tampa, you know, they're very good, but I mean,
Speaker 2: look out West, they've got Colorado.
Speaker 1: They're running away with it. No, no one can, no
Speaker 1: one can hold a candle to Colorado right now, right now.
Speaker 2: Well, as of Thanksgiving, I mean, they had an absurd,
Speaker 2: absurdly high projected points total that would rival the Bruins
Speaker 2: perfect season.
Speaker 1: So well, I was going to say, aren't they on
Speaker 1: pace to potentially break that record?
Speaker 2: They are projected points again as of Thanksgiving was one
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty nine. They have the highest playoff odds
Speaker 2: out of the model, with an eighty eighty eight percent
Speaker 2: chance of making the playoffs.
Speaker 1: The Penguins too.
Speaker 2: By the way, just thought i'd throw that out there,
Speaker 2: talk about a turnaround, They also have an eighty seven
Speaker 2: it's just hilarious, eighty seven percent chance of making the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Talk about a turnaround, which would have thought that, and
Speaker 1: that's good for business too, to have said the kids,
Speaker 1: very good for the any you have business in general.
Speaker 2: To have the Penguins be a relevant, yep, relevant team
Speaker 2: stick taps. I think it's pretty obvious. We've been giving
Speaker 2: stick taps pretty much almost all season to both Morgan
Speaker 2: Geeky and Jeremy Swayman.
Speaker 1: They're just gonna stay there until they do something that
Speaker 1: watch them not being.
Speaker 2: There, honestly, good luck trying to get them out of there.
Speaker 2: I really thought that the last game that the Bruins
Speaker 2: played against the Red Wings was Mark Castle's game. The
Speaker 2: only way that that could have been even better was
Speaker 2: if he scored a goal, and man, he busted his
Speaker 2: butt he should have gotten a goal.
Speaker 1: But that was his game. I thought he was great.
Speaker 1: I put him in there. That whole line, that whole
Speaker 1: trio has been solid, has been solid.
Speaker 2: Now they haven't been rewarded with a lot of scoring,
Speaker 2: but they're doing their damn jobs pretty well.
Speaker 1: Yep. I agree, you know, and Steve's too. He kind
Speaker 1: of for me.
Speaker 2: He came out out of nowhere, basically out of thin air,
Speaker 2: and he's he's already got three goals.
Speaker 1: He's going to be thinking about that empty netter that
Speaker 1: he missed. But oh yeah, that was brutal. That was
Speaker 1: a little brutal.
Speaker 2: You know what, it happens to everybody, so it happens
Speaker 2: to them all. Yeah, So those are the guys that
Speaker 2: I think certainly have earned their stick taps.
Speaker 1: And the penalty box. I'm just going to keep this.
Speaker 2: So the the p K for me is going in
Speaker 2: the penalty box too right now, because I think that
Speaker 2: that that has been a struggle for the Bruins for
Speaker 2: a variety of reasons, none the least of which is,
Speaker 2: you know, missing some key personnel. But still, right, I
Speaker 2: look at it, and maybe this is I'm over simplifying this,
Speaker 2: but when you have one more skater on the ice
Speaker 2: than the other team, seems to me you should have
Speaker 2: a goddamn realistic chance of scoring a goal. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: not giving up shorties no, So, which hasn't been too bad.
Speaker 2: It hasn't been too bad. But but the other thing
Speaker 2: is again, scoring is to me, is going to be
Speaker 2: the bane of this team's existence.
Speaker 1: It is drying up. You cannot continue to rely on
Speaker 1: the same players night in and night out to score goals,
Speaker 1: right for you? Right? Well?
Speaker 2: And why is that happening because those those forwards aren't
Speaker 2: on the ice because you're constantly on the penalty.
Speaker 1: Kill bingo, bingo, bingo.
Speaker 2: Get your shit together, get it together. And I had
Speaker 2: a hot take, but I think I'm gonna roll it
Speaker 2: over for our next pod. Okay, okay, So little little teaser, folks,
Speaker 2: but something that I had an epiphany about over the
Speaker 2: thanks because you know, we've reached a Thanksgiving milestone weekend,
Speaker 2: which is a big deal in hockey.
Speaker 1: In terms of trajectory for teams and your analysis. And
Speaker 1: I'll just the tease I will lead is we're still
Speaker 1: waiting on the Boston Bruins to name a captain. So
Speaker 1: I'll leave it with that. I have some thoughts. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm excited to hear it. Oh goodness.
Speaker 2: Well with that, make sure if you're looking for your
Speaker 2: holiday shopping, don't forget to use the link in our
Speaker 2: show notes to shop at the NHL Shop so that
Speaker 2: way you can enjoy their sales and also we get
Speaker 2: a little bit of a benefit from the NHL. And
Speaker 2: it's Cyber Monday, folks, so if if you get a chance,
Speaker 2: get get out there, and I'm sure it'll be some
Speaker 2: places are doing cyber weeks, so let's yes, we appreciate it,
Speaker 2: and as always, you can like and subscribe for more
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Speaker 2: my friend just the usual Azoi's Go bees, Go bes,
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