Boston Bruins Midseason Struggles: Playoff Odds & Injury Updates | Ep. 119

0:00 Speaker 1: Can you start a podcast with me? Please? I need something to do. I'll Jack send it out and trip a Bocknn says, game today, here's a chance pop fa right on the goalie scars.

0:22 Speaker 2: Oh my one a move by the rookie to.

0:24 Speaker 1: On one plaster not moving in its time on oil dances in podcast at home, right way corner, paster Chester.

0:40 Speaker 2: What is that for? Most?

0:51 Speaker 1: Welcome in, everyone to another episode of Bruin's Tape to Tape. We are recording this episode on Monday, the first of this December, post Thanksgiving, I want to welcome in my lovely co host Caroline with a kay welcome in. I hope you enjoyed our Thanksgiving break. I did, I did.

1:13 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how much the Bruins enjoyed it, but I enjoyed my Thanksgiving breaks. Now, they might have been a little bit too much turkey on Thursday based on the Friday results, but well, we'll get to all of that as we move along to our game recaps.

1:29 Speaker 1: But it's been another busy stretch for the Bruins. It just seems like they haven't really had time to breathe, and honestly, I just want to vent a little bit about the schedule, because I know the schedule's been horrible for a majority of the league, but it seems to me for the Bruins it's been a little bit more unpleasant because twice now this season we have had opponents come to the TD Garden where they arrive a day early, have a day of rest, get a practice, and our team is coming back from god only knows where and really doesn't even have an opportunity to catch the breadth.

2:10 Speaker 1: So I agree, I don't care for that.

2:12 Speaker 2: I mean, like we've talked about, I've enjoyed the schedule for the most part, but there have been a few elements that I'm not a fan of, especially considering that Boston was ahead in terms of games played too. That's I mean, it's everyone's starting to catch up now, but that wasn't great. And with the compressed schedule, we're starting to really feel the impact of those injuries.

2:34 Speaker 1: We've talked about again in past episodes.

2:37 Speaker 2: When a man goes down on any other given season, you know, if he's day to day, he might miss one, maybe two games. Day to day right now might mean you're missing.

2:48 Speaker 1: A week of games, right right, right, No, it is having an impact across the league, and we'll talk about that because there are a couple more significant injuries that occurred recently, will do that in our round the Rink segment. But to set our table for our Bruins specific topics of conversation, we're going to touch on a few injury updates and things are starting to good and bad as it flows for the Boston Bruins. We're going to talk about.

3:21 Speaker 2: Who saw Morgan Geek? Who saw Morgan Geek coming? Nobody, let's be honest.

3:27 Speaker 1: Nobody, right, And I had a little bit of an epiphany over the Thanksgiving weekend that I'm going to roll into somewhat of what I think is a hot take. Our listeners and viewers may not think so, but I'm going to fear my thought regardless, because why not, and because I can. And then I know you had been doing a little bit of statistical research for us that some of our listeners will find a little bit knowledgeable and maybe a little bit to concerning. Yes, where the Bruins are concerned, We've got a lot to talk about, so let's just dive right in.

4:06 Speaker 1: We'll start with our around the rink segment, and we'll start with an injury update across the league.

4:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, Adam Fox is the most recent defenceman, big name defenceman to go down, although again it's.

4:22 Speaker 1: Believed he will be back up and running for the Olympics. Hard to say.

4:26 Speaker 2: He was put on LTIR, which is a little more serious than perhaps what Chucky's going through. So that's at least ten games twenty four days for LTIR, and he sustained some kind of upper body injury against the Tampa Bay Lightning. He got hit and was holding his arm, So that's that's never a good sign, especially after that, and then your team puts you on LTIR immediately, that's a bad sign too. Yes, So he went down and then the other will stay in the metro area because Kyle Palmyer he's also down and out with a knee injury, which if you haven't seen play where he got injured, I got to tell you, hockey players best athletes in the world.

5:13 Speaker 2: There's no athlete like a hockey player. Because this man goes right into the boards, feet first in the boards, really hurting. The play was not called dead because I think they were playing the Flyers. They had possession and play was down at the other end of the rink, the rep for one of the linesmen, whoever was watching him to see if he needed assistance getting off.

5:32 Speaker 1: He manages to get up.

5:34 Speaker 2: Very slowly, carefully skates to his own bench, and on his way he manages to tap the puck and ultimately ended up.

5:44 Speaker 1: Assisting on a goal while he was on his way off the ice.

5:47 Speaker 2: Say what you will about Kyle Paulmery and the New York Islanders hockey players. Man, this is why hockey is the superior sport to all other sports. And any other professional athlete get injured period, let alone a knee injury.

6:04 Speaker 1: And then assist on a scoring action in any sport. Any any time I hear about an injury like this, I always think back to this was quite a few years ago. Steven Stamkos when he played for the Tampa Bay Lightning in a game at the Ted Garden, literally breaks his faith on the Gold Coast. Yes, leaves the game, gets patched up, and then freaking comes back and play like his face is busted up. It's lunacy, you know. I think football players have a similar level. I think a toughness, but I think hockey players like bar Nuns yep, we've seen.

6:44 Speaker 2: How many guys have we seen on the Bruins play games with broken legs? Jake Debresk, get it, oh, Gregory Campbell and his was like a straight up break and he was out there popping around on one freaking leg, kill off a penalty. It's lunacy.

7:00 Speaker 1: And you're right. I think we touched upon this in our last pod. But this type of a condensed schedule I think is having an effect on teams across the league with these injuries. And we're not talking some of this stuff is not one or two days now at this point, these are weeks and months. And so I asked the question. And I know if you ask the players that are going to the Olympics, they will say it's worth it. But I asked the question, is this worth it? I would think that the league and owners may be revisiting allowing the players to participate in these Olympics if these types of significant injuries continue as a lead in to Olympic play.

7:47 Speaker 2: And it's been long enough now since NHL players have gone to the Olympics that I don't remember what the schedule was like for players back last Maybe was it really twenty ten?

8:03 Speaker 1: I'm no, they were in Sochi.

8:05 Speaker 2: No, so it's been twelve years because Sochi was I believe, the last time that the NHL had players. But it's curious because I'm not sure what the schedule was like and how long the break was that year typically our and so the Olympic break is also a longer break for the players this year because typically their break is about ten days in February, and depending on exactly when your team goes on the break, I think it ultimately is maybe seven days of no hockey for us as fans, but ten days for the players.

8:45 Speaker 2: And this is a three week no hockey for US, three weeks of no NHL hockey, so it's that's almost the entire month of February.

8:55 Speaker 1: So I don't even know.

8:56 Speaker 2: I'm assuming the back end of the schedule is also going to be a little bit busy if their goal is to make sure that they are not having a super late Stanley Cup again, which obviously they already have the date set, but so it'll be interesting and those rosters are going to be decided this month, so we will know the final rosters I believe around January first, around Christmas time, January first, New Year so that's coming up very soon. I know we'll be talking more and more as those rosters come out.

9:28 Speaker 2: Certainly I've got opinions on players and who should be there and who should not be there.

9:34 Speaker 1: I know you have very strong opinions about the goaltending, and that'll be very curious to see that lands for Team USA, specifically for Team usas and to answer your question, when they come back from the Olympic break. Yes, I'm looking at the Bruins schedule from March. It's gross. It's gross.

9:56 Speaker 2: There's literally just it's the same other day, every the day. And there are two back to baths two different times in March. They will be playing back to back games. Are they a home and away back to back? That's the worst two.

10:12 Speaker 1: One is away and one of them is the home and away situation. So it's it's gross. It's gross, gross, gross, gross, gross. But back to back away, so there's travel. Oh, actually I take that back this three. So it's again it sounds like we're whining. It sounds like we're whining, but I just and we can get into this topic of conversation later on in the season in terms of, if any, the impact of going to the Olympics, to the extent that if there were any injuries when these players come back right, or they've got lingering issues or injuries as you're heading into the playoffs for particular teams, the impact of that.

10:56 Speaker 1: And we've also started hearing a little bit of trade rumor rumberlings. Now, I don't know that there's anything significant brewing, and I would be surprised if any teams make deals before the actual trade deadline in March, because again, you've got this big gap coming up here in February and teams maybe waiting to see where things fall, who's healthy, who's not healthy. But it doesn't prevent people from talking a little bit of tea. And one of the names of teams that keeps coming up in trade rumors is the Vancouver Canucks because they are having pretty much a shit season.

11:43 Speaker 1: Fire sale.

11:44 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious, yeah, that Vancouver's management is doing whatever it can in this current season to convince Quinn to stay. Because while it's not been over said, I think you can draw the conclusion that, based on his comments and interviews and things that I've heard from thirty two thoughts that he's waiting to see what happens, which means if they're in the toilet and they're not positive, changes aren't happening. He doesn't want to stay, he's willing to leave because, like any elite NHL player, at the end of the day, he wants a cup.

12:25 Speaker 2: He wants a legitimate shot of the Cup, and that's just not something that he has had with this Vancouver team, with this management. So I think right now the idea behind this fire sale is, well, we're going to do whatever it takes to fix this, and if they don't, I don't imagine he's going to be signing any kind of extension this summer because he'll be then going into his final year of his contract.

12:54 Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't do it either. And the Hughes boys wanting to play together, so that would potentially leave the door open for him going to New Jersey to play with his brother Jack and Loot. But found it interesting that there's conversations already starting. The other interesting thing I've read today is this is no shocker, and any of us could say the Edmonton Oilers looking for a goalie or need a frigging goalie.

13:21 Speaker 2: That's a mess there too, just a mess. They're in a lot of trouble. We'll talk a little bit later about this. I ran my Thanksgiving predictions model this past weekend, and it doesn't look good for the Oilers at all. It comes down to.

13:39 Speaker 1: They got a little bit of bad luck.

13:40 Speaker 2: They've got issues with their points percentage, and their goals against average as a team is bad. I'm not one hundred percent placing everything on the goaltending by any means. I mean, let's be honest, if you are an NHL goaltend, if you are a professional hockey player, and you play one game in the NHL, let alone many games in the NHL, you're really good at that sport at that position. I'm not saying that Skinner isn't or Pickard isn't. They're just not the right guys for this team. We've seen that with other players where things haven't gone really well, they move to another team and they're a whole new player, right.

14:30 Speaker 2: I think what's kind of surprising is the fact that it's been somewhat obvious to the rest of us non fans casual watchers of that team. It's been pretty obvious for a long time now, at least three years, that that tandem that starting goalie. He's just not your guy. I don't know why it's been taking them this long to come to that conclusion. And then the fact that the trade rumors that are being circulated right now are to trade for a different goalie who is also not the guy in Tristan Yari.

15:11 Speaker 1: No, I don't understand. I've heard that name, I heard the Bennington name. The one thing, the one thing that I did read in this report is whatever Edmonton decides to do when it comes to their goaltending situation, it will be a trade for the guy, so whoever they're looking for at this because let's face it, they've been trying to just put a band aid on their situation for years. And I still don't understand why Connor McDavid extended there. I honestly don't know, unless he's privy to something that the rest of us don't know in terms of what they want to build for the future to try and ultimately have this guy in Connor McDavid hoisting a Stanley Cup.

15:54 Speaker 1: You know, whatever move they make, it sounds like it has to be the move that they want to identify who their goaltender will be for a foreseeable future period of time. And maybe that's part and parcel of why David only signed a two year deal.

16:10 Speaker 2: Let me see what you're gonna do, one last chance. Not my not my team, not my problem, right, No, my not our team, not our problem.

16:17 Speaker 1: But it's just unfortunate, right because this season it looks a little bit different than it's looked in the past. Where in the past it's way the Oilers are gonna turn it on, and they have, but this season it looks different in there.

16:33 Speaker 2: They're just not looking like a good teams. I'm saying it now, folks. They're not gonna make it. They're not gonna And.

16:42 Speaker 1: We'll get to those stats too, and again they're just stats, folks, don't shoot the messenger. Caroline has spent a lot of time over her Thanksgiving break looking at analytics and data and stuff like that. So just food for thought.

16:58 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all probability, it's not certainty. Now let's get to the team that we do care about. Yes, is the Boston Bruins. Injuries are mounting, injuries are mounting. Good news is we got Eliaslund home back and Casey middlestep back.

17:17 Speaker 1: I believe that Victor Ardvdson has been skating recently. He's close.

17:22 Speaker 2: Halzaka misses a game, but it was one game David Pastronach. David Pastronach, so let's set the table with this and that it was the game against the New York Rangers on Black Friday.

17:35 Speaker 1: I went to the game. I had a pretty good buzz going as I walked into the building and then I sat down and I start scrolling through my socials and see, all of a sudden, an hour before the game, it's announced that both Pavelzaka and David Pastronach would be missing that game, to which I said, what the hell happened?

17:55 Speaker 2: What the hell happened to David Posterronach. I don't know what happened with Zaka. I don't think that we got eyes on what happened there. But with Pasta, there was a clip circulating where he was skating and it looked very similar to what happened with Arvidson. With the speculation there based on what everybody saw was a skating related possible growing pull, and that is something that can happen from this condensed schedule, this excessive use.

18:34 Speaker 1: So that's kind of the concern.

18:36 Speaker 2: He's just out right now, he's not officially on anything as far as I've seen, unless Maria, you are seeing anything out there in the interwebs, any updates. But he's day to day as far as we know, Arvidson is now day to day. They've been doing reassigning up and down, some paper transactions as hypologists have to make sure everything pathetic.

19:01 Speaker 1: But yeah, I think those are just those are in fact just paper transactions to keep themselves from getting into a little bit of cap trouble.

19:12 Speaker 2: Yes, so, because we don't really know what happened with him, just what we can tell from what we saw on TV. Hopefully it's nothing very serious. However, when it comes to muscle stuff, poles and such, you do have to be cautious with those because if you don't treat them correctly early on, it can be a season long issue. And I believe in terms of other updates, did I see Charlie Mack has been doing some skating?

19:43 Speaker 1: Yeah? I thought that Arvidson and Charlie Mack might have been skating together. I could be mistaken about that. Yes, he is starting a fit to do some skating as well, just for conditioning purposes.

19:57 Speaker 2: I have to assume we'll see what the timetable is for both of those players to get back in into the lineup, because you know, scoring has been a little bit anemic of late. Yeah, I mean, I'd never thought i'd be annoyed that Morgan geek was scoring so much. Like, don't get me wrong, love this for Boston, love this for him, But for the love of God, can someone else score the goals?

20:28 Speaker 1: And I started one of our most recent snapshots with the question of where the hell would the Boston Bruins be without Morgan Geeky And real time update, I just saw a post from Ty Anderson. Speculation is that Arvidson will be back in the lineup tomorrow. Tomorrow being Tuesday, the Bruins play Detroit. It would be good to go for the game against the Red Wings in Detroit.

20:55 Speaker 2: Well, good, good, good good. We need that secondary scoring again coming from that line. I mean, they were really cooking and then all of a sudden, well and exain, we'll get to all this.

21:04 Speaker 1: These injuries have affected a litany of things, including the power play, and I think you'll get to that as part of your stellar analysis. But yes, so just we've had another abundance of games to talk about the We'll start with the Bruins finishing their road trip on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving with a three to one win against the New York Islanders. And what I liked about this game is the fact.

21:37 Speaker 2: That people not named Morgan Geeky scored goals to help the Bruins win the game. And Jeremy Swayman, I'm not going to say he stood on his head, because I think that gets used a little too freely sometimes, but I will say that the New York Islanders put forty four shots on goal on Jeremy, Yeah, twenty three of them in the third period. Yeah, and Jeremy Swayman stopped them all and they were not easy saves. This is when you know what goalie looks locked in or is locked in. When a goalie makes a hard save look.

22:17 Speaker 1: Easy, You're like, this guy is a wall. Tonight it was unreal.

22:24 Speaker 2: I think we've been waiting. I mean, we waited a year for this, because this is the Jeremy Swayman that we saw in the year prior before the terrible last year. That was the Swaymen that we saw in that season that we knew was going going to be our future, our starting goaltender, our guy, right, and he has been that consistently for at least the month of November. He was a little slower to warm up, and I say only a little bit because his warming up period he wasn't terrible either. He was probably average, right.

23:01 Speaker 2: And so he's just been.

23:04 Speaker 1: Completely elite, elite, elite elite this month.

23:08 Speaker 2: And when we find out about the Team USA situation in terms of their goaltending, expect to be hearing from me and my opinions.

23:17 Speaker 1: If he doesn't get the net for Team USA, something is a mess. In my ge something is a mess. And I'm not saying that just as a Bruins fan. I'm saying that as a hockey fan.

23:30 Speaker 2: No, because if you look at and again, I know you'll get to this and we'll have further discussion about it.

23:36 Speaker 1: So you know, I don't want to be a spoiler here.

23:38 Speaker 2: But well wait, one spoiler. I will say it because I gotta say it. Connor Hellibuck's not the guy, because the man gets the.

23:45 Speaker 1: Yips when it counts. Connor Hellibuck definitely soils himselves. No, No, he poops his pants. Let's just come out and say it. He poops his pants. We all saw it happen in the playoffs. It's not a small sample size.

24:00 Speaker 2: Guy playoffs in the four nations. I don't know how much more evidence you need to know that he's not the guy in the high pressure situation.

24:10 Speaker 1: Whatever. Anyways, Islanders game. Anyways, we digress.

24:15 Speaker 2: Now, the Bruins won the game on the fact that I said players not named Morgan Geeky scored goals.

24:22 Speaker 1: You had two goals from Alex Steves. He's been a breadth of fresh air. He's been playing so well. I don't know how you take this guy out of.

24:32 Speaker 2: The lineup, honestly when everyone's back in healthy, because he's been doing his job and doing it very well. So we had two goals in the game against the Islanders, and Tanner Jane also had a goal. And believe it or not, in this game against the Islanders, the Bruins had only eight minutes of penalties in the game, but they.

24:54 Speaker 1: Were outshot by a margin of fourteen to forty four. Yeah, not ideal if you're only putting fourteen shots on goal. I mean, you won the game, that's all that matters.

25:04 Speaker 2: However, that game was, I mean, it was an enjoyable game. It was entertaining, to say the least. I mean just watching Swaymen Yes do his thing, and it was great, like you said, to see other players depth players to.

25:18 Speaker 1: Score some goals.

25:19 Speaker 2: So that was nice to see. But coming back then to the Garden to see that performance. I turned that game off in the third period.

25:27 Speaker 1: I was like, I can't. I got other things to do. I know how this is going to go.

25:32 Speaker 2: And it was a lot of the same old that we've seen, some of their bad habits, crapping.

25:36 Speaker 1: Up the end of a long road trip. I know they had the day off. The fact that they pulled out a win. They needed the win, they needed the points, and I'm glad that they secured those points. Now we fast forward to the Friday after Thanksgiving. That game was annoying as all hell. How you don't get up for a game the day to Thanksgiving?

26:01 Speaker 2: Yeah, not great against the New York Rangers, two original six teams.

26:06 Speaker 1: You didn't start on time. Before I even got my best in my seat, they were down one to nothing. Then you double down on the stupid penalties that you keep taking. And Mika's Abanajad and our Tammy Paneren made sure that the Bruins paid for Hampusland Holmes double minor. Four minutes. They connected on two power play goals, and the Bruins showed no signs of life until the third period.

26:35 Speaker 2: And then when Mike Sullivan saw that his team was somewhat under siege and the Bruins had closed the gap from four nothing to four to two, he called a time out and ripped his team.

26:49 Speaker 1: A new one. Yeah, there was nothing good about that game. There was it was it was.

26:55 Speaker 2: It was a trash game. It was garbage. I felt so bad for the goalten it was Corporsalo.

27:02 Speaker 1: Now, Corposalo looked a little rusty to start because he hadn't seen any game action in at least four or five games because Swayman had played that many games in a row. So I'll excuse him for the early all right, But he was left high and dry in more than one instance.

27:24 Speaker 2: And again, these effing interference, tripping, hooking penalties.

27:30 Speaker 1: I'm sick of it. I don't know how else to say it.

27:34 Speaker 2: Yes, well, I can't remember which game it was, if it was that game or San Jose. I remember thinking this either the San Jose game or it was after the Rangers game, and quite frankly, it probably was the Rangers game that could very well be a turning point.

27:53 Speaker 1: Game for good or for bad.

27:55 Speaker 2: It's either going to serve as a wake up call or or it's going to be the game that we will be able to point to to say that was the moment that cost them a spot in the playoffs because of the penalties, that they lost the game, not necessarily because they were the worst team on the ice or a bad team, they lost the game because of penalties. And I think it's going to be right at this time. So how they choose to move forward, if they are capable of moving forward in a positive direction, I don't know, because we are what twenty five games in and they've shown some discipline.

28:49 Speaker 2: We've seen them turn it around a little bit, but they can't seem to maintain it. So I'm nervous about that.

28:59 Speaker 1: Yes, and you know what their PQ was handling their lack of discipline. But now when you have key penalty killers sitting.

29:10 Speaker 2: In the box, well, and then so let's talk about the model and the predictions because it's all related to this, and this is the stuff that we're going to need to be paying attention to the most.

29:21 Speaker 1: This is what I'm going to be keying in.

29:22 Speaker 2: So I'll put the link to last year's substack article in the show notes, and there will be a more in depth explainer about this year's model later this week on the Substack. But ultimately, what I've done is I've taken data from twenty thirteen to presence, and I've compared where all the different teams were by Thanksgiving of any given year and then their playoff outcome, like do they make playoffs?

29:51 Speaker 1: Do they not make playoffs?

29:52 Speaker 2: And I've looked at a whole bunch of different very commonly used metrics, the rushes, goals for, goals against, the team, goals against average, all those kinds of things. You've probably heard us talk a little bit about the PDO and stuff like that. So ultimately, what I then did was I ran it through a couple of different statistical models to see which of the most common metrics hockey analytics that may or may not impact a team's ability to either make it or not make it to the playoffs. And so this year ruins.

30:30 Speaker 2: And again this is based on standings on Thanksgiving Day. As we move forward things will change. But on Thanksgiving Day, the Bruins had it had gone down, actually, because I ran the model a couple of times with some different tweaks here and there. The Bruins are down to only about a forty percent chance of making the playoffs right now. And the key reason is Boston has an absurdly high penalty ki load.

31:01 Speaker 1: Duh, Okay.

31:02 Speaker 2: Their PDO is fairly average. So when you think about PDO, it kind of almost measures skill over luck. It's the shooting percentage and safe percentage. A PDO of one hundred is average. If it's a little bit over, you know, oh, they're just like maybe a little bit lucky. Or if it's a little if it's under, they're just having some.

31:20 Speaker 1: Bad puck luck.

31:21 Speaker 2: But because Boston is average in that regard, what we're seeing is that they are being saved by their elite goaltending. Boston is a team whose record is inflated relative to their underlying profile because their penalty kill safe percentage is unusually strong. So they are consistently getting bailed out of high danger PK chances because of their goaltending and because of some very key penalty killing players. Boston is right now sitting well, I guess I didn't check this morning because games were played yesterday, But after the Detroit game, Boston was in second place in the Atlantic.

32:03 Speaker 2: That may seem great, Wow, that sounds like, how could they possibly be in trouble? Like, surely that being in second place in the Atlantic means that they'll make the playoffs. But like I said, their current situation looks better than it actually is because their goalie is bailing them out consistently when it comes to the penalty kill. And I brought this up in our discord and shout out to MF pointed out, Oh, yeah, and that explains the plus thirteen goals saved above average expected for swaymen because all of those shots, he's just that good.

32:38 Speaker 1: He's just that good. So he's covering up these sins.

32:41 Speaker 2: And so not only is the PK currently, like statistically, a significant issue for the Bruins, but a lot of the really important variables within the model that contributes to predicting if a team will make the playoffs or not are also directly influenced by that penalty kill burden. I'm looking at things like rush shots against the team, how many shots on the rusher made against the team goal differentials, shots against, save percentage, the PK percentage, their net percentage on that. All of these things are related to the penalty kill.

33:16 Speaker 2: And if you're on the PK more, you're facing more shots against, you have to make more saves, you have to be on the defense a lot more, and that can then negatively impact your results here in this case, so really really interesting thing. My biggest question, and again the reason why you're gonna hear me now be hung up on the penalty kill. It's not that from here on out Boston has to be perfect like Angels, because let's be honest, right, it's the Bruins.

33:45 Speaker 1: Everyone's always going to be.

33:46 Speaker 2: They got a target on their back even without Marshant, they don't have to have zero. But if they want to turn it around, they have to reduce their penalty kill load by twenty percent fewer minutes, right, That could be one less PK per game, and they're going to have to somehow eke out two more regulation wins and improve that they're safe percentage. And when I say safe percentage, you may be thinking, well, how the heck could Jeremy Swayman save anymore? The only area of improvement then would have to end up being on Corpusollo in his game, so hopefully he can bring his up a little bit.

34:29 Speaker 2: But the save percentage is going to increase naturally if they're not on the PK nearly as much.

34:35 Speaker 1: That's going to be the key. So it's not ideal to take another five penalties as they did in the game against the Red Wings Saturday night.

34:45 Speaker 2: Jesus Christ right, I mean they're averaging three or four penalties per game at this point. If they can just literally have to have one less, one less, and that's a twenty five percent reduction in PK.

34:58 Speaker 1: I've actually gotten to the point where I consider it a moral victory if they can get through a period without a penalty a period.

35:07 Speaker 2: I don't think it's unreasonable to say, hey, take one less penalty for the love of God, and you might be able to then actually make it into the playoffs.

35:16 Speaker 1: Well, I think we've all watched enough hockey, both regular season and playoffs to know that this is not sustainable if you want to be a successful regular season team or potentially a playoff team.

35:33 Speaker 2: And I don't know why this is happening. I don't understand why it hasn't been corrupted. Now, I understand you're subject to the mercy sometimes of officials that are calling to attack bullshit. However, you're in control of your stick, right, Yeah, you are in control of your stick. Shouldn't the tripping calls, the interference calls, the hooking calls. Cut the shit, guys. I said it last week. Cut the shit.

36:06 Speaker 1: I don't know how else to say it, because you have lost opportunities to secure points recently because of your undisciplined play.

36:20 Speaker 2: Yep, it's within grasp, right, their ability to to turn this around and improve their odds, the probability that they're going to make the playoffs, like, it's within grasp because again, the biggest predictor is is PDO, which again you don't have to actually be scoring necessarily more goals, Like it's it's taking shots. Well, you can't take shots if you're on the PQUE Okay, you can't. It's just it's just not gonna happen as much. And you know the safe percentage. Yeah, the Bruins are in fantastic shape in that regard.

37:05 Speaker 2: But like, you can improve your PDO if you improve your shooting, you know, So get off the stupid p K it's not about getting the goals in the net, Like, yes, the goals in the net are great. Goal differential is included in the model, like, it's all part of the bigger picture, But it's literally gonna come down to the penalties for Boston this season.

37:28 Speaker 1: And those statistics also have I would think, an impact on a lot of five v five played as well.

37:37 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, it's looking almost always exclusively at five v five and if you're not on the five v five you're gonna be either over under weighted or estimated on the result because you're you don't have the data doesn't exist for five.

37:57 Speaker 1: So yeah, well, I think think they all know, right because we hear them say it. That knowing and doing by very different things, apparently right, talking and implementing action is now. The game against the Red Wings at home, which was the first time the two teams had faced each other, was a very entertaining game. But again, it was a really good game. Non ideal that the Bruins allowed the Red Wings five powerplay opportunities. They killed them all off. They killed them all off. However, it took a shootout for them to win the game.

38:34 Speaker 1: But here's what I will say here's what I will say in light of how they played against the Rangers the Friday afternoon game, and the fact that there were a lot of passengers on the ice during that game that didn't show up to play until the third period, the fact that Mark or Sturm held players accountable in his postgame remarks. He didn't have to name any names, and he would not allow anyone to make excuses for injuries. He went so far as he almost started to say I believe the word disappointed or disappointing.

39:09 Speaker 1: He stopped himself. But the fact that he expressed his dismay and that the Bruins bounced back in the game against the Red Wings. Understanding is you let two important crucial points walk out of your building on Friday, you cannot allow two more crucial points to walk out of your building on a Saturday night. Great game, but again the Morgan Geeky show two more goals in that game on Saturday night. Jeremy Swayman saved the Bruins bacon again the stops that he made in the shootout against the likes of Pactic Oh my god, oh unmanned his reaction.

39:50 Speaker 1: Those glove saves were phenomenal when the shootout was over, because they all understood how important getting those two points at, especially.

40:01 Speaker 2: With the game the game that he played like, don't like he won them that game, don't screw it up?

40:09 Speaker 1: Well, he gave them the opportunity to win that game, and Casey Middlestat won the game with his shootout goals. So credit to them for bouncing back, for listening to their coach, for remedying the shit play they had against the Rangers for most of the game except the third period, and responded in a big way. Now, we've got three more games coming up this week every other day, starting with the Detroit Red Wings again on Tuesday, yep, So it'll be interesting to see how everyone responds to that game.

40:47 Speaker 1: I think there were some extracurriculars that took place in the game that may may carry over into Tuesday night games. But then they faced the Saint Louis Blues on what is that Thursday night, Yesterday night against the Blues, and Saturday night against the Devils, the first time we're seeing each of those teams. Neither the Red Wings or the Blues have any significant injuries to speak of. The Blues are trying to fight their way back into being a five hundred team. I think they're winners. When last I checked, they were winners of their last two games before they face the Bruins.

41:32 Speaker 1: The Devils are at the top of the Eastern Conference standings themselves, but they've got and how they're doing this, How the Devils are playing as consistently and as well as they're playing, I don't know. Without Jack Hughes in their lineup. They have thereout. They must have a deep team.

41:52 Speaker 2: It's crazy, but they're without Jack Hughes, without Brett Peshe, without the Dad nov It's see that the depth that they have.

42:02 Speaker 1: Yeah, the games against the Red Wings and the Devil's crucial.

42:07 Speaker 2: Yeah.

42:07 Speaker 1: And to get points maybe not so much the Blues game.

42:12 Speaker 2: I don't want to say great get points out of every game, but when you're playing within your own division, your own conference, the stakes are higher. In my room, and let's face the reality of the two right now, there is no elite team in the Eastern Conference. If you look at the standings, everyone's relatively bunched up. Yes, some teams have game in hands over other teams, but from a point total, it can potentially be anybody's ball game.

42:44 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I agree.

42:45 Speaker 2: You know, at the end of the day, like, yeah, you want to get your points when you're playing a Western team, but it really matters when you're playing teams in the East because they're the ones you're you're competing against for a spot. I mean, the Devil's right now and Tampa, you know, they're very good, but I mean, look out West, they've got Colorado.

43:06 Speaker 1: They're running away with it. No, no one can, no one can hold a candle to Colorado right now, right now.

43:13 Speaker 2: Well, as of Thanksgiving, I mean, they had an absurd, absurdly high projected points total that would rival the Bruins perfect season.

43:23 Speaker 1: So well, I was going to say, aren't they on pace to potentially break that record?

43:29 Speaker 2: They are projected points again as of Thanksgiving was one hundred and thirty nine. They have the highest playoff odds out of the model, with an eighty eighty eight percent chance of making the playoffs.

43:42 Speaker 1: The Penguins too.

43:43 Speaker 2: By the way, just thought i'd throw that out there, talk about a turnaround, They also have an eighty seven it's just hilarious, eighty seven percent chance of making the playoffs.

43:52 Speaker 1: Talk about a turnaround, which would have thought that, and that's good for business too, to have said the kids, very good for the any you have business in general.

44:01 Speaker 2: To have the Penguins be a relevant, yep, relevant team stick taps. I think it's pretty obvious. We've been giving stick taps pretty much almost all season to both Morgan Geeky and Jeremy Swayman.

44:15 Speaker 1: They're just gonna stay there until they do something that watch them not being.

44:20 Speaker 2: There, honestly, good luck trying to get them out of there. I really thought that the last game that the Bruins played against the Red Wings was Mark Castle's game. The only way that that could have been even better was if he scored a goal, and man, he busted his butt he should have gotten a goal.

44:40 Speaker 1: But that was his game. I thought he was great. I put him in there. That whole line, that whole trio has been solid, has been solid.

44:49 Speaker 2: Now they haven't been rewarded with a lot of scoring, but they're doing their damn jobs pretty well.

44:55 Speaker 1: Yep. I agree, you know, and Steve's too. He kind of for me.

44:59 Speaker 2: He came out out of nowhere, basically out of thin air, and he's he's already got three goals.

45:07 Speaker 1: He's going to be thinking about that empty netter that he missed. But oh yeah, that was brutal. That was a little brutal.

45:14 Speaker 2: You know what, it happens to everybody, so it happens to them all. Yeah, So those are the guys that I think certainly have earned their stick taps.

45:24 Speaker 1: And the penalty box. I'm just going to keep this.

45:29 Speaker 2: So the the p K for me is going in the penalty box too right now, because I think that that that has been a struggle for the Bruins for a variety of reasons, none the least of which is, you know, missing some key personnel. But still, right, I look at it, and maybe this is I'm over simplifying this, but when you have one more skater on the ice than the other team, seems to me you should have a goddamn realistic chance of scoring a goal. Yeah, and not giving up shorties no, So, which hasn't been too bad.

46:05 Speaker 2: It hasn't been too bad. But but the other thing is again, scoring is to me, is going to be the bane of this team's existence.

46:16 Speaker 1: It is drying up. You cannot continue to rely on the same players night in and night out to score goals, right for you? Right? Well?

46:28 Speaker 2: And why is that happening because those those forwards aren't on the ice because you're constantly on the penalty.

46:34 Speaker 1: Kill bingo, bingo, bingo.

46:38 Speaker 2: Get your shit together, get it together. And I had a hot take, but I think I'm gonna roll it over for our next pod. Okay, okay, So little little teaser, folks, but something that I had an epiphany about over the thanks because you know, we've reached a Thanksgiving milestone weekend, which is a big deal in hockey.

47:01 Speaker 1: In terms of trajectory for teams and your analysis. And I'll just the tease I will lead is we're still waiting on the Boston Bruins to name a captain. So I'll leave it with that. I have some thoughts. Okay, I'm excited to hear it. Oh goodness.

47:20 Speaker 2: Well with that, make sure if you're looking for your holiday shopping, don't forget to use the link in our show notes to shop at the NHL Shop so that way you can enjoy their sales and also we get a little bit of a benefit from the NHL. And it's Cyber Monday, folks, so if if you get a chance, get get out there, and I'm sure it'll be some places are doing cyber weeks, so let's yes, we appreciate it, and as always, you can like and subscribe for more content please you know, be sure to leave a rating and you to help other Bruins fans find us.

48:03 Speaker 2: You can support us also by joining our Patreon or following us on all of our socials at Tape to Tape mk and on Substack at Tape to Tape mk dot substack dot com. And with that, inclosing any closing thoughts, my friend just the usual Azoi's Go bees, Go bes,